Build an opportunistic hotspot basket from current deep markets — narrative first, exact weights second.
Registration metadata was decoded from the indexed on-chain URI.
{
"type": "https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-8004#registration-v1",
"name": "2026 Deep Event Catalysts",
"description": "Build an opportunistic hotspot basket from current deep markets — narrative first, exact weights second.",
"image": "https://api-dev.polyvaults.ai/favicon.ico",
"services": [
{
"name": "Polyvaults Custom Index",
"endpoint": "https://test-app.polyvaults.ai/custom-index/c7850dcc-8c58-4878-9a91-93e915587997",
"version": "1"
}
],
"x402Support": true,
"active": true,
"registrations": [
{
"agentId": "666",
"agentRegistry": "eip155:137:0x8004A169FB4a3325136EB29fA0ceB6D2e539a432"
}
],
"supportedTrust": [
"reputation"
],
"polyvaults": {
"seriesId": "c7850dcc-8c58-4878-9a91-93e915587997",
"strategyHash": "0x496d9efe7cc09a19d02170a991c4449efca7101a876bd63430638ddb7a811ee4",
"ownerAddress": "0x1e1DeeD10cF1BB9b91C904879860dE4f305bc6a8",
"visibility": "public",
"revisionNumber": 1,
"basket": {
"items": [
{
"oiUsd": 573.349643,
"title": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x0e447f6d7435af8eb5ab4ff629d5b71c936062c9528de3dbaf1e0ff57cfdf8c5",
"marketSlug": "will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-before-2027",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x0e447f6d7435af8eb5ab4ff629d5b71c936062c9528de3dbaf1e0ff57cfdf8c5",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.5455,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A reduction to the top income bracket for long ter"
},
{
"field": "title",
"excerpt": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"title"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 3538.510125,
"title": "What will be the next Fed rate change?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x0ff3f9d3cf361c18ba014d0c9a664ec506f2ba569f25acbe94c15d1df3fe848a",
"marketSlug": "what-will-be-the-next-fed-rate-change-20260713235358796",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x0ff3f9d3cf361c18ba014d0c9a664ec506f2ba569f25acbe94c15d1df3fe848a",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "What will be the next Fed rate change?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "What will be the next Fed rate change?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to ch"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "What will be the next Fed rate change?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 55044.941812,
"title": "Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x12b3c8b27d00011e11fa342e2b0be4800d2f2744aff2b76ee73b337c05e3a0bb",
"marketSlug": "fed-decisions-juloct-20260617191209856",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x12b3c8b27d00011e11fa342e2b0be4800d2f2744aff2b76ee73b337c05e3a0bb",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Pause–Pause–Cut",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the nex"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "Pause–Pause–Cut"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 6262.963225,
"title": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x28dc4873a85a2d4f4d5dbbaead6dc575071492eacf43415ff2a8d0076f83324c",
"marketSlug": "iran-blockade-lifted-before-iran-oman-hormuz-agreement",
"aiRationale": "Identify liquid geopolitical escalation, negotiation, and settlement outcomes.",
"conditionId": "0x28dc4873a85a2d4f4d5dbbaead6dc575071492eacf43415ff2a8d0076f83324c",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and "
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify liquid geopolitical escalation, negotiation, and settlement outcomes.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_geopolitical_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 2795.79694,
"title": "Bank of Korea decision in October?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x31eecb0d0d480cc63c55b986de1246e76eeeb5f16179386935be4e31b8f066a6",
"marketSlug": "bank-of-korea-decision-in-october",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x31eecb0d0d480cc63c55b986de1246e76eeeb5f16179386935be4e31b8f066a6",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "50+ bps cut",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the October 2026 meeting?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the "
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "50+ bps cut"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
},
{
"oiUsd": 89.037036,
"title": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x366bbd0dcb0cd2fb21ae311838a6b4465f9d690743f945ec24db442a1c4dd1fc",
"marketSlug": "federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x366bbd0dcb0cd2fb21ae311838a6b4465f9d690743f945ec24db442a1c4dd1fc",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A qua"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"events": [
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 573.349643,
"title": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x0e447f6d7435af8eb5ab4ff629d5b71c936062c9528de3dbaf1e0ff57cfdf8c5",
"marketSlug": "will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-before-2027",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x0e447f6d7435af8eb5ab4ff629d5b71c936062c9528de3dbaf1e0ff57cfdf8c5",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.5455,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if legislation that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest bracket is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A reduction to the top income bracket for long ter"
},
{
"field": "title",
"excerpt": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"title"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?",
"marketSlug": "will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-before-2027",
"targetWeight": 0.5455
},
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 3538.510125,
"title": "What will be the next Fed rate change?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x0ff3f9d3cf361c18ba014d0c9a664ec506f2ba569f25acbe94c15d1df3fe848a",
"marketSlug": "what-will-be-the-next-fed-rate-change-20260713235358796",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x0ff3f9d3cf361c18ba014d0c9a664ec506f2ba569f25acbe94c15d1df3fe848a",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "What will be the next Fed rate change?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "What will be the next Fed rate change?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to ch"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "What will be the next Fed rate change?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "What will be the next Fed rate change?",
"marketSlug": "what-will-be-the-next-fed-rate-change-20260713235358796",
"targetWeight": 0.0909
},
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 55044.941812,
"title": "Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x12b3c8b27d00011e11fa342e2b0be4800d2f2744aff2b76ee73b337c05e3a0bb",
"marketSlug": "fed-decisions-juloct-20260617191209856",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x12b3c8b27d00011e11fa342e2b0be4800d2f2744aff2b76ee73b337c05e3a0bb",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Pause–Pause–Cut",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the nex"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "Pause–Pause–Cut"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)",
"marketSlug": "fed-decisions-juloct-20260617191209856",
"targetWeight": 0.0909
},
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 6262.963225,
"title": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x28dc4873a85a2d4f4d5dbbaead6dc575071492eacf43415ff2a8d0076f83324c",
"marketSlug": "iran-blockade-lifted-before-iran-oman-hormuz-agreement",
"aiRationale": "Identify liquid geopolitical escalation, negotiation, and settlement outcomes.",
"conditionId": "0x28dc4873a85a2d4f4d5dbbaead6dc575071492eacf43415ff2a8d0076f83324c",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and "
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify liquid geopolitical escalation, negotiation, and settlement outcomes.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_geopolitical_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?",
"marketSlug": "iran-blockade-lifted-before-iran-oman-hormuz-agreement",
"targetWeight": 0.0909
},
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 2795.79694,
"title": "Bank of Korea decision in October?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x31eecb0d0d480cc63c55b986de1246e76eeeb5f16179386935be4e31b8f066a6",
"marketSlug": "bank-of-korea-decision-in-october",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x31eecb0d0d480cc63c55b986de1246e76eeeb5f16179386935be4e31b8f066a6",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "50+ bps cut",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the October 2026 meeting?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the "
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "50+ bps cut"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "Bank of Korea decision in October?",
"marketSlug": "bank-of-korea-decision-in-october",
"targetWeight": 0.0909
},
{
"legs": [
{
"oiUsd": 89.037036,
"title": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?",
"marketRef": "pm:conditionId:0x366bbd0dcb0cd2fb21ae311838a6b4465f9d690743f945ec24db442a1c4dd1fc",
"marketSlug": "federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709",
"aiRationale": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"conditionId": "0x366bbd0dcb0cd2fb21ae311838a6b4465f9d690743f945ec24db442a1c4dd1fc",
"buyDirection": "YES",
"targetWeight": 0.0909,
"allocationRole": "thesis_anchor",
"groupItemTitle": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?",
"semanticEvidence": {
"excerpts": [
{
"field": "question",
"excerpt": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?"
},
{
"field": "description",
"excerpt": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". A qua"
},
{
"field": "groupItemTitle",
"excerpt": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?"
}
],
"facetKind": "direct",
"contentRisk": "none_detected",
"verification": "server_verified_excerpt",
"retrievalMode": "keyword",
"causalRelation": "Identify deeply traded macroeconomic outcomes and central-bank decisions.",
"evidenceFields": [
"question",
"description",
"groupItemTitle"
],
"matchedFacetId": "liquid_economic_narratives",
"relevanceScore": 70,
"supportingOutcome": "YES",
"horizonCompatibility": "unknown"
},
"allocationRationaleCode": "DIRECT_THESIS_MATCH"
}
],
"title": "Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?",
"marketSlug": "federal-capital-gains-taxes-be-cut-by-2026-20260812124430709",
"targetWeight": 0.0909
}
],
"thesis": "Build an opportunistic hotspot basket from current deep markets — narrative first, exact weights second.",
"constraints": {
"minOiUsd": 100000,
"maxMarkets": 12
},
"description": "2026 Deep Event Catalysts"
}
}
}Data source: Polygon indexer projections (Identity Registry, Reputation Registry, and registration metadata decoding at index time). Self-declared metadata and endpoints are not verified by Agentory.